The Syrian Democratic Council
Turkey’s Strikes on the Tishrin Dam: Humanitarian Crisis and Regional Instability

Turkey’s Strikes on the Tishrin Dam: Humanitarian Crisis and Regional Instability

By Taim Hassan

Hasakah, Syria (SDC) – Since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011, Turkey has pursued its neo-Ottoman agenda by supporting armed groups under various names in Syria. When these groups failed to achieve Turkey’s objectives, it intervened directly, occupying Syrian territories.
After the fall of the Ba’ath regime in Syria, Turkey intensified its military attacks, focusing particularly on areas in North and East Syria. For the past 40 days, Turkey has been specifically targeting the Tishrin Dam and the Qara Qozak Bridge.

Through its military operations within Syrian territory, Turkey seeks to enhance its regional influence at the expense of Syrian sovereignty. Its current attacks are focused on the Tishrin Dam, located on the Euphrates River.
The Tishrin Dam is one of Syria’s most vital resources for both water and electricity. It serves as a vital piece of infrastructure for the region, which is home to millions of residents in North and East Syria.

The Strategic Importance of the Tishrin Dam

Tishrin Dam is situated about 90 kilometers from the city of Aleppo. It is a critical point on the Euphrates River. The dam is strategically positioned on the waterway that connects northern Syria to the south and extends into Iraq, making it a key hub for controlling both water and energy supplies in the region.
It also houses a hydroelectric power station, which generates approximately 630 megawatts of electricity. This makes it one of Syria’s most significant sources of electrical energy.
The dam plays a vital role in stabilizing the power supply across northern and eastern Syria, ensuring that residents have access to electricity.
In addition to its role in electricity generation, the dam provides irrigation water for thousands of hectares of agricultural lands. This contributes to food security for the population and strengthens the agricultural economy in the surrounding areas.

Turkey’s Actions and Objectives

Turkey views the Tishrin Dam as a critical asset for controlling the flow of the Euphrates River. This river is essential for both Syria and Iraq.
By gaining control of the dam, Turkey would obtain significant leverage. This would enable it to manipulate water supplies to neighboring countries. By doing so, Turkey could potentially use water as a political or economic tool to pressure these countries into agreeing to its demands or policies. As it has already built several dams on its own territory.
These dams allow Turkey to withhold water from downstream countries. Ankara uses the waters of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers as tools of extortion, coercing Syria and Iraq into complying with its demands.
Turkey’s attacks on the Tishrin Dam also target the control of energy resources. By controlling the electricity produced by the dam, Turkey would have the power to impose its political and economic terms. This could particularly affect the Autonomous Administration in northern Syria, which relies heavily on the dam for its electricity supply.

Additionally, Turkey’s main objective is to undermine the gains of the Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria (AANES) experience. The Dam is located within territories controlled by the AANES that has proven to be the most viable governance model in Syria. This model has the potential to expand across the entire country, posing a direct challenge to Turkey’s regional ambitions.

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Turkey seeks to seize control of the Dam in order to weaken the AANES. By limiting the Administration’s ability to provide essential services to the population, Turkey aims to destabilize the region. Additionally, it strives to solidify its presence in strategic areas within Syria. This is part of a broader policy designed to enhance its regional influence and expand into neighboring states.
This strategy aligns with Turkey’s so-called “Misak-ı Milli” (National Pact). The National Pact envisions cities like Aleppo, Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and Hasakah in Syria, along with cities in Iraq such as Mosul, Kirkuk, and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, as part of Turkish territory.
To achieve these goals, Turkey employs various means, pretexts, and justifications. It seeks to establish military bases in these regions, assert control over them, and alter their demographics. These actions aim to integrate these territories into Turkey without the consent of Syria or Iraq.

Military Strikes Amid High Risks

For the past 40 days, Turkey and its allied factions within the “Syrian National Army” (SNA) have launched intense attacks on the Tishrin Dam. These assaults have involved various types of heavy weaponry, including aerial bombings of the dam’s structure and surrounding areas. Warplanes and drones have targeted the dam, despite the significant humanitarian and environmental risks posed by these actions.

The Devastating Impact of a Tishrin Dam Collapse

The collapse of the Tishrin Dam would lead to a large-scale disaster due to Turkish attacks. This catastrophe would impact Syria as well as neighboring countries. As one of the vital dams on the Euphrates River, its destruction would trigger devastating floods, causing widespread damage.

In addition to the floods, the collapse would result in the breakdown of critical infrastructure services. The long-term economic repercussions would be severe, affecting not only Syria but also the surrounding region.
The release of massive quantities of water stored behind the Tishrin Dam would lead to catastrophic flooding. Villages and cities along the Euphrates River’s path would be submerged. The areas most affected would include Raqqa, Tabqa, and Deir ez-Zor, where a large population and critical facilities are situated along the riverbanks. The impacts of the flooding would also extend into Iraqi territory.

The rapidly flowing water would result in a massive casualty, particularly in residential areas close to the dam. Bridges, roads, and residential buildings would suffer extensive damage. Furthermore, the complete disruption of electricity and water networks would worsen the already dire humanitarian situation.

The collapse of the Tishrin Dam would have severe humanitarian consequences. Flooding would displace tens of thousands of residents, leaving them homeless and destroying their agricultural lands. This displacement would worsen Syria’s ongoing refugee and internally displaced persons (IDP) crisis, which is already under significant humanitarian strain.

The inundated farmland would become unusable for a prolonged period, resulting in reduced food production. This would increase the region’s reliance on international aid, especially in areas that depend heavily on local agriculture.

Moreover, the floodwaters could contaminate water sources, raising the risk of waterborne diseases such as cholera and typhoid.

The floods would have severe environmental repercussions. They would devastate the ecosystems surrounding the river, leading to significant biodiversity loss in the region. The fast-moving waters would wash away contaminated soil, chemicals, and waste, polluting the Euphrates River and nearby water bodies.

Economically, the hydroelectric power station at the dam would be completely disabled. This would cause widespread power outages. Areas that rely on the dam for electricity would be severely affected. The submerged farmland would take years to recover, causing catastrophic losses for the agricultural sector.
Additionally, the destruction of infrastructure and disruption of services would severely impact economic activity in the affected regions. This would worsen the already critical living conditions for the local population.

Massacres Against Civilians

Local citizens have taken action to prevent Turkey from seizing control of the Tishrin Dam. They are concerned that such control could severely impact the lives of hundreds of thousands of residents in North and East Syria. To protect the dam, the community has organized round-the-clock shifts, ensuring constant supervision and defense. Their aim is to deter Turkish warplanes and drones from targeting and destroying it. Despite these efforts, Turkey has carried out attacks on the civilians stationed at the dam, committing massacres that can be considered war crimes.

On January 8, 2025, Turkish warplanes and drones targeted a civilian convoy traveling between Sirrin and the dam. This attack resulted in the deaths of three civilians and left 15 others injured.

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On January 15, 2025, another civilian convoy heading to the dam was targeted between Sirrin and the dam. The attack led to the death of one citizen and the injury of four others. The convoy was targeted once again after reaching the dam, resulting in the death of three civilians and the injury of 19 others.

On January 16, 2025, military aircraft once again targeted personnel on duty at the dam. This attack resulted in the death of one citizen and the injury of 17 others, including three journalists.

On January 18, 2025, personnel stationed at the dam were targeted, leading to the death of six civilians and the injury of 19 others.

On January 21, 2025, the personnel on duty were attacked again, resulting in the deaths of two citizens and the injury of 20 others.

Medical teams transporting the wounded from the previous attacks were also targeted. This led to the death of two individuals and the injury of three others from the medical staff involved in evacuating the injured.

Position of the Transitional Government in Damascus

Despite Turkey’s attacks on the Tishrin Dam, the transitional government in Damascus has remained silent. These attacks have resulted in human casualties and pose significant risks to Syria, including the potential collapse of the dam. Such an event would have catastrophic consequences for the country.
So far, the government has not issued any statement or expressed a position regarding Turkey’s military actions within Syrian territory. This silence raises many questions about the government’s commitment to protecting Syria’s sovereignty and its people.
Additionally, the international community has failed to take a clear stance on Turkey’s attacks. This lack of action sends a dangerous message, effectively encouraging Turkey to continue its military operations within Syrian territory.
It also creates an environment where Turkey can commit further war crimes and crimes against humanity without accountability. These actions add to the growing list of offenses Turkey has perpetrated in Syria. Since 2016, Turkey has launched four occupation-related offensives, each contributing to the ongoing suffering and instability in the region.

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